Spot Bitcoin ETFs Could See $220B of Inflows in Next 3 Years: JMP Securities

Spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds could see $220 billion of inflows over the next three years, which means BTC’s price could quadruple to $280,000 when applying the multiplier on new capital, broker JMP Securities said in a research report Wednesday.

JMP analysts said crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) remains well-positioned if their inflow estimates prove to be correct. The broker raised its price target on the stock to $300 from $220, the highest among Wall Street analysts, according to Factset data, while maintaining its market outperform rating. Coinbase shares were trading 2.6% higher at $262.92 at press time.

While spot bitcoin ETF inflows have smashed expectations, reaching $10 billion just two months after launch, JMP said that “activity (and flows) experienced thus far is likely still the tip of the iceberg,” adding that flows will continue to grow materially as ETF approval was just the beginning of a “longer process of capital allocation.”

“We estimate $220B of incremental flows will come into the ETFs over the next three years, which could also be quite impactful to bitcoin’s price given the multiplier on capital,” analysts led by Devin Ryan wrote.

“If we are directionally correct on the level of net ETF inflows reaching $220B, applying our estimate of the current multiplier of new capital of ~25X, this alone could drive a $5.5T bitcoin market cap increase, or $280K per bitcoin,” the authors wrote.

In a new daily record, spot bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of 14,706 bitcoin, worth over $1 billion, on Tuesday, according to data tracked by BitMEX research.

A separate JPMorgan analysis suggested that the bitcoin spot ETF market could grow to around $62 billion in the next two to three years, the bank said in a report last week.

Read more: Bitcoin Is Unlikely to Match Gold’s Allocation in Investors’s Portfolios in Nominal Terms: JPMorgan